You can expect a .260ish average with a plus walk rate (call it a .350 on-base percentage), plus power (let's say 25 homers -- but I bet he cracks 30 at least once) and above-average defense at third base, good enough to fill in at shortstop if needed. I'll split the difference and call both Mayer's hit and power tools 55-grade ability (.270 with 20-25 homers), but either could also be a 60, and there are no concerns that he can post at least average defensive performances at shortstop. Jackson Jobe, RHP, Detroit Tigers James Triantos, 3B, Chicago Cubs To wit, two clubs that evaluate players in similar ways gave me wildly different feedback: One said he's probably not a catcher and to move him off the top 100, while another said he belonged in the top 30 spots. Pfaadt took even another step forward in 2022, dominating Double-A and Triple-A over 167 innings, with scouts raving about his feel and competitiveness while penciling him in as a mid-rotation fit as soon as the middle of 2023. Their late-first-round pick from the same draft (signed for underslot) is four slots later on this list and teams knew nothing about him until a few months before the draft. He can do almost anything at the plate. Following the graduation of Yankees infielder Oswald Peraza, Mets 2022 first-round draft pick Jett Williams became the latest addition to MLB's Top 100 prospect Naylor was a first-round pick out of a Canadian high school (in 2018), like his older brother and Guardians teammate Josh (in 2015). Going back to high school, he would sit in the upper 90s and regularly hit 100 mph or higher. He's 6-4 but has below-average raw power and clearly prioritizes getting on base. Lewis has been on the verge of sticking in the big leagues for years now -- but the 2017 No. In 2021 (and behind closed doors because of the canceled 2020 minor league season) he took a massive step forward, adding about 20 pounds of muscle and a new swing geared to that frame, hitting 27 homers in 109 games. His plus power and plus arm give him some margin for error, but his hit tool and pitch selection have been better than expected. Hit: 60/65, Game Power: 40/45, Raw Power: 50/50, Speed: 50/50, Fielding: 50/55, Throwing: 60/60, Type: Well-rounded hit-over-power backstop, Reminds me of: The first two MLB seasons of J.T. The further down in the minors you go, it becomes a tiered system of ranking prospects based on their trade value relative to top-tier prospects. The striking rise in incredibly tall hitters succeeding (Oneil Cruz, Elly De La Cruz, and Spencer Jones all following in Aaron Judge's footsteps) gives Wood a little more credence than scouts would've given him five or so years ago when Judge and Richie Sexson were the comps at that height. The Cardinals' offseason signing of Willson Contreras and retaining of Andrew Knizner blocks Herrera's path to immediate big league playing time, especially with the glut of young position players who are in St. Louis or close. Speaking of strikeouts: In 211.2 pro innings, Harrison has 343. Youth. Type: Shortstop with a chance to stick and have plus hit/power from the left side. There's also a lot of uncertainty with prospects, so it's by default looking at the rosier potential outcomes compared to some current MLB players. This 20-80 scale also applies to the FV (future value) used to sum up a player's overall value. Now Manzardo may be knocking on the door of the big leagues late in 2023, just two years after being a divisive draft prospect. Most importantly, Moreno is a definite catcher. De La Cruz is listed at 6-5 but I think he's a bit taller, and simply by having 70-grade raw power, speed and arm strength, we're already into all-time territory of the best tools anyone has ever seen. Its intent is to explain a player's ranking in a handful of simple words by saying they remind me of a current All-Star and have that as their high-risk upside, but you can also see why a lower-risk player might rank higher. How he hits at higher levels this year will give us an idea of what sort of hitter he'll be against regularly 95 mph-plus velocity, but he has the tools to be an above-average hitter with above-average pitch selection and 30-plus homers. It helps his knockout, plus-plus changeup, which he throws almost as much as his heater, drew a 50% whiff rate last season across High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A. He had an unlucky ball-in-play-related slow start in 2022 but still ended up with 21 homers and 50 stolen bases split across Double-A and Triple-A. There isn't a perfect comparison for Carroll, but I started with Harper as they both have an intense, play-with-your-hair-on-fire approach with more explosive ability than you'd think from watching them walk around in uniform. Scouts are still concerned that he isn't quite nimble enough behind the plate and his arm strength plays down due to execution, though a robot ump future would help. Type: Positionless Canadian-born hitting robot sent from the future. He was pretty good in the complex league and Low-A, so Detroit sent him to the Arizona Fall League where his control was well below average. Lesko was on the national scouting scene as early as his freshman year in high school, when he was sitting in the low-90s, mixing in a plus changeup and understandably putting up goofy numbers. His pitch selection is among the best in the minors -- let's call it plus-plus -- he has had all-field plus power and a swing geared to getting to it for years. Kiley McDaniel's top 100 MLB prospects for 2023: Which future star is No. Owen Caissie, RF, Chicago Cubs Drew Romo, C, Colorado Rockies He is probably not a star, but he should be good for a long time. Reminds me of: Oneil Cruz on the whole, but with raw tools alone that are also similar to Bobby Witt Jr. Marte has been on the radar for a while, as he was in the top tier of his international signing class when he got a $1.55 million signing bonus in 2018. Type: Plus-Plus athlete with bloodlines and feel. He isn't the most nimble individual laterally, so his future at shortstop is a real question, though he could play at second or third base. He's the Venezuelan-born younger brother of the major league utility infielder of the same name and signed for $20,000 as an undrafted free agent in 2020 out of an Arizona junior college. For still unclear reasons, both players slid out of the top three (Henry Davis, Jack Leiter, Jackson Jobe went with those picks and are all much lower on this list or just off of it). Collier went to junior college and reclassified into the 2022 draft class, but Johnson won the draft head-to-head. Peraza joins Volpe as Yankees shortstops who are ready to impact the big league team, though Volpe may play a bit more at Triple-A to start 2023. Per usual, though, there are still plenty of compelling prospects on the board. ESPN releases top 100 prospects for 2023 here's where the He also stole 28 bases and still looks like an above-average defender at shortstop, so all the elements are here. If he doesn't improve there, Tovar will be slightly below league average at the plate, but helped by Coors and his standout glove, so probably just a low-end regular. Reminds me of: He's somewhere in the Venn diagram of Gary Sanchez, Cal Raleigh, Salvador Perez and Willson Contreras. I mention this because Vargas is big-league-ready with plus bat control, plus pitch selection and 41 homers over the past two seasons -- even though his power will probably play closer to average at the big league level. One decent argument against (though it still doesn't change my mind) is if they don't think he'll be able to jump to making 32 starts after his light workload in 2022 and just 117 innings pitched in 2021. The hit tool is still the headliner here as his raw power is only average, but getting a solid catcher who can hit .270 with 15 homers is in the range of Danny Jansen (who posted 2.6 WAR last season in 72 games for the Blue Jays), which is basically the 10th best catcher in baseball. Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout of the Los Angeles All three of these players have played only a little bit in Low-A but have plenty of upside so 2023 has a good shot at being their breakout year -- let's just be ahead of the curve, right? Ji-Hwan Bae, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates Now you understand how a softer tossing high school kid that now has grown into league average fastball velocity can strike that many guys out and is expected to do it against big league hitters, too. After Jones' shoulder surgery and with some positive post-signing performances, Holliday has now opened up a bit of a lead over the other two. Right after C.J. Garcia made his Double-A debut last season and ended the season in the big leagues but even after the Adalberto Mondesi trade, he's still behind Bobby Witt Jr., Hunter Dozier, Nicky Lopez and Michael Massey as homegrown second base/third base/shortstop options. Wood likely loses a step or two and slides over to right field as he ages, but he's a decent center fielder with an outside shot to remain there. Brady House, SS, Washington Nationals The Royals have had trouble getting to the next stage of their rebuild, but they haven't had trouble producing solid infielders. The Padres targeted Susana, who popped up late in the international signing period with upper-90s velocity, after they had already spent all of their money, so they agreed to a $1.7 million bonus as long as he waited a year to sign in January 2022. Joon Lee . Marte currently looks like an above-average hitter with above-average in-game power, but his physical development, ultimate defensive home and offensive approach will evolve over the coming years. So there's an argument that Carter is the best on-base-percentage threat among the top prospects in baseball, and he's a good defensive center fielder on top of that. Realmuto's career. Here's who FOX Sports NFL Draft analyst Rob Rang ranks as the top 20 players Naylor has an excellent approach, good-not-great contact skills and 55-grade raw power along with sneaky average speed. Before the Mariners took Ford with the 12th pick of the 2021 MLB draft, I described him as a powerlifter who is also a yoga instructor. The Guardians turn mid-to-late-round college pitchers into real prospects at a frightening rate, and Bibee is the latest example. Johan Rojas, CF, Philadelphia Phillies They also both come with the injury risk and less playing time that almost all catchers have these days, limiting their upside. Arizona has seven total prospects named at least once on the four lists and four consensus top-100 guys - Carroll, Jones, Jordan Lawlar, and Brandon Pfaadt. His splitter and curveball are both at least average and Bradley's command projects to be above average. 1, Panthers' Bryce Young is all 'business now', XFL semifinals: Defenders roll Sea Dragons, set up title showdown with Renegades. Davis made the slow climb from midfirst-round prospect to a mild surprise as the No. For context, Carroll suffered a serious shoulder injury in the seventh game of the 2021 season (after missing the whole 2020 season because of the pandemic) at High-A when he swung so hard on a home run that his shoulder couldn't handle the impact. Why paying players in their 30s rarely works out , How decade-plus deals suddenly became a thing . That's not what you normally see in an elite high school baseball prospect, but Ford also does the baseball stuff pretty well. The sales pitch at that point was 70-grade power that could produce 30-plus homers, enough hit/approach qualities to unlock that power and an 80-grade arm that gave him a shot to stick behind the plate. Carroll is a plus defender in center field, he's a plus-plus runner (a top-of-the-scale 80-grade runner for some), and he's a baseball rat with instincts to match: 33/39 on stolen bases last season over three levels. One exec summed up my conundrum thusly: "No one knows what to do with Chourio. It's never likely any player turns into the Hall of Famer they resemble most, but even if comparing a prospect to Scherzer -- the outlier of outliers -- is a fool's errand, it's just hard to ignore the profiles being similar. Type: Hit-over-power, big-league-ready shortstop. His slider and curveball also improved to flashing plus with the added arm speed, and he has maintained his starter command and solid changeup. Elly De La Cruz is going to become appointment viewing once he gets to the TV league, in the same way that Oneil Cruz and Fernando Tatis Jr. lit up Statcast on a nightly basis when they hit the big leagues, Velo: 95-99, Fastball: 65/70, Slider: 55/60, Curveball: 50/60, Changeup: 45/55, Command: 40/50, Reminds me of: (leans in, whispering, looking around) Justin Verlander. Henderson and Carroll have separated themselves from the pack and are a near coinflip for the top spot. He was dealt to Baltimore last summer as the headliner in a package for closer Jorge Lopez. The main reason there's a tier break here is that Moreno offers premium ability, but in a more subtle package that a fan might not notice right away. But the very positive early reviews since signing, followed by a great full-season debut with shockingly good advanced data, helped Merrill springboard into the Arizona Fall League with hype and he continued to deliver. He's generally seen around the industry as the headliner in the Luis Castillo trade, but that isn't unanimous with Noelvi Marte ranked just five slots later. He was good enough after returning that he certainly could have made his big league debut at the end of the season like fellow Baltimore prospect Gunnar Henderson did. That hasn't happened, as he still has a lanky build and runs well, but is exclusively playing a corner outfield spot. 30 overall in the 2020 draft. Kiley McDaniel covers MLB prospects, the MLB Draft and more, including trades and free agency. Williams is two months older and went 20 picks earlier in the 2021 draft, but both are medium-framed shortstops with strong power showings in their full season debuts in 2022. He is likely an offensive-oriented backup who can DH, play first base or offer depth at third until his defense gets to the level of a nailed-down starter. Top MLB rookies for 2023 include Corbin Carroll, Gunnar He All this to say, the pick seemed like a great one for the White Sox at the time and has worked out even better than expected so far. De La Cruz actually hit over .300 at both High-A and Double-A last year in big samples. He went No. The issue now is that the track record of pitchers with that title isn't great. That should tell you just how much upside the towering right fielder has, and just how disappointing his 2021 draft year performance was. Type: Plus power and patience from a probable catcher. On last year's list, I ranked Perez 55th and said he "has the most attractive rsum an 18-year-old pitcher can have" while explaining that a young, hard-throwing, super tall right-hander with changeup ahead of breaking ball isn't a type I like to bet on, and it also seems impossible that a kid this young and tall can keep throwing strikes like this. Cristian Santana, 2B, Detroit Tigers Now let's move on to ranking baseball's top 100 prospects entering the 2023 MLB season. Type: Explosive bat speed and big power potential, but it's early. Each coach submits a Top 25 with a first-place vote worth 25 points, second place 24, and so on down to one point for 25th. Crow-Armstrong became a known name early in his high school career in southern California and held serve, going 19th overall in 2020 to the Mets. Upgrade to a Disney Bundle plan and start streaming something for everyone today! Other tools like throwing for position players or off-speed pitches are more based on visual evaluations, but there are some objective figures to round observations up or down. Salas' younger brother Ethan was the top prospect in the recent international signing period, going to the Padres for the biggest bonus in the class; he's ranked about 40 spots behind Jose right now, but that may not be the case for long. Velo: 96-98, Fastball: 70/80, Slider: 60/70, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/55, Command: 45/50, Type: If the fire emoji turned into a pitching prospect. It was a different story in 2022 as his velo jumped a couple ticks to 91-94 mph with good ride and the same standout command. 32 lingering post-draft questions: Will Lions have regrets? He made it all the way to the Orioles at the No. There's all kinds of conditions and exceptions beyond how I simply describe it there, but Craig Kimbrel and A.J. Harrison, an interesting low-slot lefty starter, had a good summer showcase season and a solid spring out of a NorCal high school, but he was still working mostly 89-92 with stuff that flashed above average to plus at times. At the plate, he has an average hit tool and pitch selection -- have to hope those don't end up being a notch or two lower -- with 25-30 home run upside if it all clicks. Type: A 6-5 (or possibly taller! He flashes four plus pitches, plus athleticism, and starter command pretty regularly now, but the quality of the total package and his feel for execution still come and go. His velocity is still new, he's only made 18 pro appearances, and his command is a notch behind Harrison's. That vaulted him into 2022, when he excelled at High-A and Double-A, putting him on track to reach the majors in late 2023 or early 2024. Soon after that his velo was starting to climb, his secondary stuff was accordingly getting more crisp, and his command wasn't suffering. As he dials in his launch angle and offensive approach, there's a shot he hits 30-plus homers. 3 overall in the 2020 draft and made his big league debut in 2022, but needed Tommy John surgery. First the good: He is 6-7 with deceptively plus speed and loose, easy actions in all phases, especially a low-effort lefty swing that creates massive raw power. Type: Glove-over-bat center fielder, but probably still a league-average hitter. If he does, he'll hit 30 homers, give us fun bat flips and nobody will care much that he's just OK defensively. Type: Late-blooming midrotation righty with a great changeup. The selling point here is Hassell can hit with a good approach. That line of thinking would mean that Collier is at risk of being a bat-first corner utility type on the backup/starter borderline. Frelick was a late bloomer as a standout multisport athlete in Massachusetts who turned into a middle first-round pick at Boston College. in games more effectively right now and Lawlar has had two freak injuries (torn labrum in his shoulder just after he signed and a broken clavicle suffered in the Arizona Fall league). Type: Big league-ready hit-over-power shortstop. That would become more of an issue in a robot ump future combined with the new rules that encourage more stolen bases, as throwing out runners is more important with more attempts and since framing wouldn't exist, catchers could sell out to block pitches. Julio Rodriguez improved a good bit on chase rate just last season after pitch selection was his biggest question mark as a top prospect. He's a plus runner and big league caliber shortstop with an 80-grade arm, above average power potential and bat speed, along with plus foot speed. Type: Switch-hitting shortstop with above-average power and speed. 10. Minter are two guys who do this with their fastballs very well, and it's a huge reason why they succeed. WebHigh School Baseball Recruiting Database. He's just OK defensively and will probably be able to stick at third base, but will be on one of the corners regardless. That said, scouts I spoke with aren't getting the fuzzy feelings they got with Acuna and Tatis at the same stage and there's some worry that Chuorio could be more of a fringy on-base threat who needs to get to most of his power -- maybe more like Luis Robert? Westburg was a late bloomer who didn't do the full showcase/tournament circuit in high school and was just starting to grow into his tools in his draft year at Mississippi State before he went No. He'll be in Triple-A this year after hitting 30 homers in Double-A as a 20-year-old, so bet against him at your peril. It seems pretty obvious that Bradley is going to be pitching in the big leagues soon and the opposing broadcast team will incredulously ask where the Rays keep finding these arms. The Padres took him 62nd overall, but gave him a $2.6 million bonus commensurate with the 26th overall pick. 1 overall pick missed the whole 2020 season, then missed the whole 2021 season with a torn ACL and his 2022 campaign ended early with surgery to repair a partial tear of the same right ACL and he won't return until at least June. Jameson sits 96-98 -- sometimes reaching triple digits -- with solid fastball command and a plus slider that drew whiffs 40% of the time last year. That's largely the way things have gone from a performance standpoint, but with Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt getting MVP votes on long-term deals ahead of him, the Cards moved him to the outfield part time in the 2022 regular season and then exclusively in the outfield in the Arizona Fall League.
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