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Brexit and VL in No10 (original official advice was to go with the useless bureaucratic EU scheme even though wed left so a fortiori it would have advised the same had Brexit not happened, but credit to the Cabinet Secretary for backing Vallance and me with the PM), c) the elite world resolutely refuses to consider procurement generally or the VTF in particular in the context of Brexit good/bad, d) in 2021 the VTF was effectively closed and turned into a normal entity rather than given the money and goal of replacing current vaccines with new ideas to solve the variants problem with safer technology, e.g nasal vaccines, e) this too is a non-subject in SW1. Work for Dominic Cummings at your peril, but his take on the state's . the word strategy is a) used differently in military books, b) used differently over time, c) constantly misused in politics.). Steve Jobs advised Obama to do the same but it didnt happen. The more I study the more clear it is that luck plays a crucial part in almost all famous successes. As long promised (sorry! , Adam Smith. Apr 18. I started reading him around 1999 when I first got involved in politics. On prediction. There are fields like professional mathematics and equity investing where institutions mean the best people are recognised over time. A great textbook by the worlds leading scholar on the subject. Im reading this summer. The best book on politics. This is the Newton biography and its brilliantly done with intense love and care for its extraordinary subject. Two adjacent questions: 1) what signals of memes/news predict that X is likely to emerge from the noise and become one of the few stories/memes thats significant e.g the process of the Wall falling has started with small events which are detectable but almost nobody notices or realises what a big deal they will be in a few weeks, how soon can we, X is Y% likely to be a big story, with what confidence? . As the craziness of 2024 approaches his ideas will be much more influential in some circles than you will realise from the media. April 22, 2023 156 Comments. Ive only read a few excerpts of these but reading them all is a project for later this year. Cowen & Collison handed out fast grants to researchers during covid and at my request advised UKRI on how to speed up in spring 2020. Re George Mueller, the man who managed the Apollo program. . We can now test fertilised eggs for common risk factors such as mental disorders and heart attacks and choose which egg to use for IVF. Some interesting things I've read recently - Substack Like all the best political advice you dont need to be clever to understand it. Histories of the Standard Model: The Second Creation, Crease & Mann (1996) and The Infinity Puzzle, Frank Close (2011). I applied his basic ideas in the euro campaign, in the 2004 North East referendum, in thinking through education reform and trying to get the Department for Education to do what I wanted, in the Brexit referendum, in solving the 2019 impasse, in No10, and to removing this PM since spring 2021. While some characters from the ancient world, such as Themistocles or Alexander the Great, would be as interesting to study in minute detail we dont have the sources. Start trial Already a paid subscriber? Timeline: How the Dominic Cummings controversy unfolded Ive only read a few excerpts of these but reading them all is a project for later this year. A scholarly history of maths, not for a general reader. Mandelbrot. but most do not realise the last chapter is about Nietzsche and the Last Man, and this chapter is the most relevant today. Tyler Cowen, Patrick Collison and others have been trying to push some of the principles of how to do hard things into economics and government, in similar ways to some of my arguments over the years. If you read his blogs and trusted him on covid over the entire CDC/FDA/WHO bureaucracies, youd have come out far ahead. (Ive recently read some of the media commentary about 2019 that I ignored at the time and its amazing how many hacks thought I was trying to use vNs game theory. (This series was written for the Russian correspondence school a way of giving talented maths pupils a useful curriculum in such a vast country. by Lee Kuan Yew. is extraordinary, e.g his secret search for the truth about Leibniz. Classic text, university level. If you want to follow the cutting edge of this research follow Steve Hsus blog, which you should anyway. Collison has a webpage summarising responses to this. The Book of Why (general reader). , you see a world historical genius skip between vast scales of time and space, connecting tiny things happening this moment to the biggest things affecting decades or centuries to come. I started like everyone young assuming those at the top of politics must be smart, interested in policy and great at organising things. What does it say about the West that their newspaper propaganda was much higher class than most elite philosophy now? *Come and See ( , Russian). People who havent studied it often mock Fukuyamas. He was a mathematician who got interested in how markets work. (I spent ~2 years reading a lot of books on this ~2005-15. Her recent book, The Scout Mindset, was excellent. (NB. Never At Rest, Westfall. The media laughed and many said its so boring. Also you cant understand our world unless you have a sense of Nietzsches profound influence on 20th Century artists, thinkers, and politics. Dynamics of 2024. The greatest deeds are thoughts (Some confusion about his ideas is a result of his sister who was a Nazi supporter and edited things he wrote to distort his actual views. The critical meta-lesson is the same for all the below: Grovess last personnel report concluded that his effectiveness is unfortunately lessened somewhat by the fact that he often irritates his associates, but he has extraordinary capacity to get things done. Then he was effectively fired. This excellent short book introduces quantum mechanics using A Level maths. Mindstorms, Seymour Papert. Classic text, university level. NB. Its fascinating both for getting hard things done and how to reform science funding. , General Groves. People who havent studied it often mock Fukuyamas The End of History but most do not realise the last chapter is about Nietzsche and the Last Man, and this chapter is the most relevant today. Sun Tzu. Grovess last personnel report concluded that his effectiveness is unfortunately lessened somewhat by the fact that he often irritates his associates, but he has extraordinary capacity to get things done. Then he was effectively fired. Number, Dantzig (1930, updated 1953; new edition 2007). Anybody who goes to Hollywood can see right away what the setup is Hollywood is Hollywood, theres nothing you can say about it that isnt true, good or bad. (on maths, logic, P=NP, computational complexity), (in general, and if interested in extreme talent Steve blogs a lot on this), The most interesting intelligent person writing on American politics who a) really knows a lot of history, b) understands the rationalists but is not of them, and c) whose version of regime change includes ending democracy, is. This by Fields Medallist Terry Tao, maybe the greatest mathematician alive, is brilliant and incredibly useful for someone like me explaining a lot of fundamental concepts in non-technical language. Many interesting developments and the launch of the 2024 campaign may be only a few weeks away, if Trump announces on 4 July as is being discussed in Mar-a-Lago. Their favourite argument is the laughable its a small island, about as sensible as a general saying Alexander the Great was using cavalry so its out of date. It amazes me how many scientists and economists know nothing or almost nothing about it. A classic book on mathematical problem solving. Its fascinating both for getting hard things done and how to reform science funding. A general introduction to number theory, topology, calculus and other subjects. Classic on teaching children programming, recommended by Alan Kay and Bret Victor. Steve has a startup that is a leading player in this emerging field. On connections between quantum physics, computation and information theory. The Greatest Communicator, Worthlin. Highly recommended. There is a great. I'll answer some over the next 48 hours, on Friday I'll focus on live questions/discussion, then tidy up after. Sources of Power, Klein. If you get into it you have no right to be bitter, youre the one who sat down and joined the game People who dont succeed, people whove had long bad times like Renoir Renoir was the best director ever are people who didnt want to make the kind of pictures that producers want to make. By Reagans pollster. Anyone interested in terrorism and counter-terrorism should watch Pontecorvos movie The Battle of Algiers, one of the best movies ever made. The truth is that they recognized themselves my enemies had nothing to do with its failure. summarising responses to this. On the 50th anniversary Munger reflected on why his partnership with Buffett had been so successful and Buffetts personality. The cynicism/realism remains shocking. Groves (fired), Bob Taylor (fired), George Mueller (not funded to push on to Mars after the moon), Renoir The list goes on and on. Non-fiction books on politics fail to give you this crucial sense. Then nationalism became generally despised by educated liberals, and so on We cant, how our own ideas will appear in the future but its fascinating how little we, to imagine how foolish our own views will inevitably appear to those looking back on us. I wish there was something similar on the history of the LMB at Cambridge, one of our crown jewels which Whitehall (and the VC office) has gradually buried with stupid regulation. Essential companion (and very much ignored by most Americans) to The Federalist Papers - the so-called Anti-Federalist Papers (AFP): http://resources.utulsa.edu/law/classes/rice/Constitutional/AntiFederalist/antifed.htm, https://history.nycourts.gov/about_period/antifederalist-papers/, Re Monnet ~ https://thecritic.co.uk/issues/october-2020/the-eu-godfathers-wall-street-roots/ and Draghi ~ https://thecritic.co.uk/issues/may-2021/the-sphinx-who-reshaped-europe/, This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. You have to neglect things if you intend to get what you want done. I know some of them. One of the most critical lessons? Reagans White House was better at communication than any other in the modern era partly because they did not rely on normal political staff but brought people in from Hollywood. The politicians soon are on the next current thing too. In the search I came across Boyd. Plato. Worthlin. (Some confusion about his ideas is a result of his sister who, a Nazi supporter and edited things he wrote to distort his actual views. Review of the disintegration of the Tories in the context of Brexit, SW1 vs, perspectives on risks of Brexit/Remain, and, and save the trolley to Get Brexit Done despite our reservations. (I knew Mark, a professor at Cambridge, who spent a huge amount of time over the past decade helping state school pupils get hold of great physics material via Isaac Physics. Also Democracy in America. Perhaps America has elections every four years, power supply is ~100% reliable in the First World, Europe wont see millions killed in wars again, nobody lives happily/normally to 200, robots cant escape control and kill vast numbers of humans, children should study curricula controlled by the state, I support policies that undermine traditional ideas about the family will seem as quaint in 2052 as Bertrand Russell being taught by a grandfather whod met Napoleon that British naval dominance is a fact of life. And notice that despite their vast success Buffett & Munger have had almost zero success in persuading anybody to run their companies the way they run Berkshire! Predictions on AGI can be Straussian. are classics about the presentation of information by the worlds leading expert. Had I included everything I knew and shown the whole truth, even I could not have watched it. If theres one film to show Nietzsche brought back from the dead, maybe this is it. 19 Apr 2023 07:47:58 Whenever and. A history of ARPA-IPTO and Xerox PARC: how the internet and PC revolution was created. , one of the best movies ever made. Autocracy has wide variance in performance one minute you have Bismarck in charge, the next you have Wilhelm II firing him and trying to govern himself in an appalling disaster that took the best educated country in the world towards Nazism. , Terence Tao. Like with ARPA-PARC its fascinating to see how funders ignore such successful examples. A good biography of Dirac, The Strangest Man, Farmelo. I did pinch ideas from how Bismarck dealt with the Prussian constitutional crisis.). One must not be squeamish about admitting this (Strauss). The Dance of the Photons, Zeilinger. Alan Kay, one of those present at the creation, says its by far the best history. are great. Predictions on AGI can be Straussian. The best book on politics. The story of Turing, von Neumann and the computer. The Misbehaviour of Financial Markets, Mandelbrot. Groves (fired), Bob Taylor (fired), George Mueller (not funded to push on to Mars after the moon), Renoir The list goes on and on. Interesting on the psychology of selling and marketing. Oppenheimer is better known but Groves was his boss. , Nietzsche. For us its often seen as high level political philosophy but it was bashed out by Hamilton et al as part of a brutal political struggle including many dirty tricks on both sides. Update to Trump v Biden blog of last September. His. ), , Waldrop. Then I realised the truth. Posted January 13, 2014 Source: Pexels There's a lot of hope today that playing mindless brain training games will make you. 2h It is not a forecast & says explicitly 'this is not a forecast' 2 1 , summarising the arguments on why artificial general intelligence is so dangerous and why controlling these dangers is so very hard. A classic book on calculus / analysis designed for undergraduates. On dynamic tools, interface design, Seeing Rooms, new ideas about programming, tools for thought, and so on, David Deutschs books. The best biography in English (probably any language) is Otto Pflanzes three volumes. How to predict news? , Leonard Susskind (2013). Tyler Cowen, Patrick Collison and others have been trying to push some of the principles of how to do hard things into economics and government, in similar ways to some of my arguments over the years. If you want to understand the modern intellectual classes media, academia and politics this plugs you straight into their psychology. LKY, Boyd, Groves all say the same). , Seymour Papert. This is false. ), here are some books and a few papers I recommend. True of Bismarck (only appointed because of meltdown in royal circles), true of the likes of SpaceX (an explosion away from bankruptcy) and Steve Jobs (tried to sell early and was turned down), true of Brexit We just dont see all the stories of very able people trying really hard who get taken out by bad luck early in the story. Audacity to Win, Plouffe. Reckoning With Risk, Gigerenzer. Dominic Cummings's Odyssean reading list might make you smarter. Will live players use the next five months to build build build or waste the most important element in conflict, time, and let non-player characters stumble into a set of critical decisions in November? Great DVD documentary too. Want to Get Smarter? Read Something on This List Something on how ideas change over different time scales. I know some of them. In War and Peace, you see a world historical genius skip between vast scales of time and space, connecting tiny things happening this moment to the biggest things affecting decades or centuries to come. Perhaps America has elections every four years, power supply is ~100% reliable in the First World, Europe wont see millions killed in wars again, nobody lives happily/normally to 200, robots cant escape control and kill vast numbers of humans, children should study curricula controlled by the state, I support policies that undermine traditional ideas about the family will seem as quaint in 2052 as Bertrand Russell being taught by a grandfather whod met Napoleon that British naval dominance is a fact of life. Mathematics: Its content, methods and meaning, Kolmogorov et al. A classic based on his famous Lectures. The Nazis did indeed think they were creating a new world beyond good and evil, so did Stalin. A short companion book to his famous lecture series. If youre thinking of doing a startup or just curious about how to do hard things you should read Paul Grahams essays. High Output Management, Andy Grove, ex-founder/CEO of Intel. Makers of Modern Strategy, Paret et al. I like reading stuff about people where incentives and feedback work, from used car salesmen to fortune tellers. , Marcus du Sautoy. A 16-year-old schoolgirl, Caitlyn Scott-Lee, was found dead near Wycombe Abbey School. You can learn from him about how to get very hard things done without admiring his character. Some of the. (Planning to see some classics Ive missed: Intolerance; Tokyo Story; Bicycle Thieves.). A widely praised new biography of John von Neumann, the man Einstein, Bohr, Dirac, Pauli et al thought was the smartest person they knew. Elite polarisation, Cicero & fishponds. Michael Nielsen on quantum mechanics and computers: Why the world needs quantum mechanics Quantum Computing for Everyone Quantum Computing for the Determined. On typical problems dealing with statistics, Bayes Theory, and how to improve understanding of probability. How Roger Ailes packaged Nixon with actual campaign memos reproduced at the back. No doubt about that Nietzsche produced the climate in which Fascism and Hitlerism could emerge. Many ideas you see from others (e.g Taleb) derive from Mandelbrot. Dominic Cummings: look closely to see the traps he is setting British political writing depends hugely on assuming that much of the newspaper coverage is roughly true, so given much is actually invented it means the books repeat a lot of fake news and miss the point. Its crucial to remember both aspects of this genius-monster without whom probably no World War I, Lenin, Hitler etc summed up by Salisburys two comments: One misses the extraordinary penetration of the old man and he will do things of which it would be absurd to suspect any other statesman in Europe. one of my terrorist demands when Boris asked me to go to No10, 21 July 2019). The uncomfortable truth about Dominic Cummings's campaign playbook Non-fiction books on politics fail to give you this crucial sense. Man-Computer Symbiosis, Licklider, 1960 and The Computer as a Communication Device, Bob Taylor, 1968. The best book about Gdels Theorem (according to the editor of Gdels Collected Works) which explains why almost everything one reads about it including by some famous scientists (e.g. And notice that despite their vast success Buffett & Munger have had almost zero success in persuading anybody to run their companies the way they run Berkshire! In all of these struggles I tried to follow Boyds advice such as, connect yourself to sources of power, disconnect your opponent and in all of them, as the opponents OODA crumbled I observed what Boyd said would happen: it starts to feel like your opponent is working for you, the more they try, the worse it gets (e.g when Cameron called the press conference to denounce lies about the fact that Turkey was in the process of joining the EU!). , Charlie Munger. Very very telling that in a recent interview with Tyler Cowen, the recent head of the CIA was clearly unaware of this work, which includes results showing that his own agency is routinely bested by people like unemployed grandmothers in a hut in Central America. This is true even of those who frequently complain about this phenomenon. ): how much was the effectiveness bound up with the dangerousness the failure of alignment and/or the inherent drive of high intelligence to escape constraints/control/alignment with others goals? When you read this you realise that UK parties are something like 50-60 years behind understanding TV so its no surprise theyre bad at new technology. This is false. On digital fabrication. , which was unpublished for many years and seems to be generally unknown, is super-useful. For example: , Andy Grove, ex-founder/CEO of Intel. E.g Introduction to Strategic History, Modern Strategy, Strategy and Defence Planning (reading now). SW1 suffers such extremely powerful wilful blindness even an event as big as covid doesnt puncture consciousness in many important ways. (A counterfactual: if Thatcher had taken his advice in the early 1980s and rejected the emerging Single Market plan and embarked on civil service reform?). Bookmarks. Almost anything good you read on strategy and conflict is based on ideas you see here. Considered by many in Silicon Valley to be the best book on the details of management. Im reading this summer. He left his Downing Street role following an internal power struggle, amid claims the PM's then-fiancee had blocked the promotion of one of his allies, Lee Cain, after months of internal warfare . A modern version of Polya for children, by aFields Medalist. Two adjacent questions: 1) what signals of memes/news predict that X is likely to emerge from the noise and become one of the few stories/memes thats significant e.g the process of the Wall falling has started with small events which are detectable but almost nobody notices or realises what a big deal they will be in a few weeks, how soon can we detect X is happening then predict X is Y% likely to be a big story, with what confidence? You have to neglect things if you intend to get what you want done. The Cummings effect: politics, trust, and behaviours during the COVID Dyson, Hawking) is wrong. It also corrects a lot of modern books that have reverted to the World War I was a terrible accident / railway timetables idea in fact crucial nodes in the Prussian deep state network were trying to force war in summer 1914 and to manipulate Wilhelm II into going along with their plans. (Planning to see some classics Ive missed: theory as not relevant to the old Hollywood where the producers called the shots, not the directors. Vast amounts of what you read on this is rubbish. Our impression was there is valuable low hanging fruit for governments, hedge funds, campaigns, Thucydides. I blogged a series on this great book starting here; if you only read one of these blogs make it this one on the most important issue, great people (NB. He replied to Yudkowskys AGI ruin here as did Paul Christiano here. And a very recent post. If you read his blogs and trusted him on covid over the entire CDC/FDA/WHO bureaucracies, youd have come out far ahead. If you want to understand modern culture, the 19th Century smashup of the traditional world with the capitalist, liberal and increasingly atheist world, and what deep forces lie behind the ideas we see all around us, its the best book. Mr Cummings is Boris Johnson's chief adviser. Pflouffe ran the Obama 08 campaign and 2012 re-election. Its often found in terrorist safe houses when raided. My blog with other books HERE. If hed run the Hillary campaign in 2016, no Trump as President. , Gertner. A lot of Boyd (including getting inside your enemys OODA loop) is interpreting Sun Tzu after 2,000 years of case studies proving him right plus some modern ideas. Many academics predicted OpenAIs approach would not work but have been. In particular Ill add textbooks, history and philosophy which Ive largely left out. If we could predict events like the fall of the Berlin Wall better it would have huge value. (If anyone knows if his remarkable secretary, Mrs. OLeary, left any records or an oral history please leave links below. For the beginner, by a Fields Medallist. SW1 suffers such extremely powerful wilful blindness even an event as big as covid doesnt puncture consciousness in many important ways. The best modern subject for those interested in how political decisions are taken and effective action in politics/government is, . The Quark and the Jaguar, Murray Gell Mann. It was a direct inspiration for my terrorist demand to Boris, July 2019: we must create an ARPA. Most of the world is not like this! Ditto for the Johnson volumes (Ive not read) when Caro publishes the last. Mathematics: A short introduction, Gowers. While some lessons are specific to time/place (e.g how the Senate works in 1950) the most important lessons from all such books are quite abstract and common and I assume this will be true of these classics. Although Nietzsche despised nothing more than the radical left, he became extremely influential on it, perhaps because nobody else so thoroughly demolishes the foundations of liberal democracy, although, in a further twist, few of the left realise the extent to which they are influenced by him. , Polya. , and let non-player characters stumble into a set of critical decisions in November? Main allegations as Dominic Cummings gives evidence to MPs on the government's early handling of the COVID outbreak in the UK. Based on a course Susskind taught in San Francisco to give people a basic physics education. Keynes essay on Newton is great: , the core document of the rationalist movement. , in contrast to most professional economists who influence media debate on regulation who have no idea of how government really works and how destructive it is to make simple things take years, how it drives people away, rewards the worst people and companies etc. which egg to use for IVF. Rosen on military innovation, very relevant to discussions on things like drones and AI in Ukraine. I blogged a series on this great book starting. I really liked this classic but a lot was beyond me. why some of the VL team decided to go to No10 in 2019, Thoughts on past and future of the Buffett system, , Scott Aaronson (Scientific American, 2008), Orson Welles thought Renoir the greatest director, https://thecritic.co.uk/issues/october-2020/the-eu-godfathers-wall-street-roots/, https://thecritic.co.uk/issues/may-2021/the-sphinx-who-reshaped-europe/. Please, . If you want to stop Trump in 2024 you should figure out what you could offer Plouffes wife to let him do it. No doubt about that Nietzsche produced the climate in which Fascism and Hitlerism could emerge. I think hes right that most academics assume models for how this works that are clearly not how people really think under pressure. In 2018 I asked some academics to consider this and we built a crude tool. Thames Valley Police have confirmed that her corpse was discovered on Friday, April 21, just before midnight. You often read versions of those really at the edge of this research do not predict fast timetables. One of Britains most senior and respected civil servants, Michael Quinlan, wrote this paper after retiring, Thinking About Nuclear Weapons, on nuclear strategy. Almost no MPs or senior officials study him or are even midly interested. On connections between quantum physics, computation and information theory. Dominic Cummings Richard Feynman was a giant of theoretical physics who famously defined science as "the belief in the ignorance of experts". If you want to stop Trump in 2024 you should figure out what you could offer Plouffes wife to let him do it. You and your research, Hamming. Orson Welles thought Renoir the greatest director. Psychologie des foules, Gustave le Bon. Dominic Cummings Tells of Boris Johnson's Inept Covid Policy - The New Based on a course Susskind taught in San Francisco to give people a basic physics education. I blogged on it here. The philosophising Tolstoy fought against the picture of an infinitely complex system in which most thoughts and actions fade to zero significance quickly but a few connect to others with highly non-linear effects. Zvi reviews Tyler Cowens new book, Talent. Posted January 13, 2014 . Blurb endorsement by Einstein. Classic on teaching children programming, recommended by Alan Kay and Bret Victor. The river was also burning. Dominic Cummings, a special adviser to UK education minister Michael Gove, discusses technological advances (quantum computing, 3D printing, energetics etc. Will. Almost no MPs, journalists or academics have any idea about just how costly such bureaucracy truly is or how these bureaucracies truly work and the criminality and near-insanity theyre capable of. The title comes from. Ditto for the Johnson volumes (Ive not read) when Caro publishes the last. A history of the amazing Bell Labs which famously won more Nobels than most EU countries. Like Hoskyns (below) genuine rare insight and almost totally ignored. Governments find it very, very hard to fund such ventures. He opted out of the traditional science funding system early. AT&T could only support it when a monopoly. , Hardy. E.g rapidly speeding up construction/housing/infrastructure, how to accelerate scientific discovery and technological development. Elite opinion in London today is dominated by very similar people with very similar education and very similar views that inevitably include. Dominic Cummings: How does he now earn a living? - BBC News steve stricker wrist lock; what channel are the st louis cardinals playing on today